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NASCAR Sprint-Cup Series
JENSEN: Don’t Look Now, But It’s Time To Race
Ten things to look for this season in the Nextel Cup Series.
Tom Jensen  |  Posted January 28, 2007   Harrisburg, N.C.


Johnson, here sporting the zebra look in testing, will undoubtedly contend again, but a repeat is a tall order. (Greg Aleck photo)

Time to get busy. As I write this, some 55 NASCAR Nextel Cup drivers and teams are at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, preparing for a two-day test that will be far more revealing than the recent Daytona test. The Vegas cars will be in the so-called downforce configuration that is used in more than half the Nextel Cup races, not the super slick, low-drag speedway aero package used only at Daytona and Talladega.

In just 10 days, the 2007 Nextel Cup season begins in earnest, though the teams will tell you quite correctly, that for them, there is no such thing as an off-season anymore. They've been working feverishly all winter, just out of the public eye. Next week at Daytona, it will become very public and very real, with the running of the Budweiser Shootout, followed eight days later by the Daytona 500. It's game on, big time.

So with the start of the 2007 season just 10 days away, here are 10 predictions of what to look for this year.

1. There will be a new series champion. Jimmie Johnson had another great season in 2006, winning his first championship, the two biggest races of the year - the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 - and showing that he and his team could prevail in the clutch. There is no doubt about his talent or the depth of the Hendrick Motorsports team around him. But the last driver to repeat as Cup champion was Jeff Gordon in 1998 and while Johnson will have another excellent year in 2007, he won't repeat.

2. There will be a different championship owner. Just as it's almost impossible for drivers to repeat as champions in Nextel Cup anymore, only one team owner - Jack Roush in 2003 and '04 - has had his drivers win consecutive championships since 1999. That trend will continue in 2007.

3. NASCAR drops the Car of Today The Car of Tomorrow, or whatever NASCAR ultimately calls it, is scheduled to be phased in over three seasons. The plan now calls for it to compete in 16 races this year, 26 in 2008 and all 36 in 2009. Despite all the posturing and complaining about the new car, it's here to stay. And by Aug. 1, the teams will go to NASCAR and ask that the Car of Tomorrow be used in all races in 2008, because trying to build, maintain and race two entirely different types of cars will prove to be a nightmare of epic proportions this year.
Harvick should be really "happy" in his new Shell colors this year. (Greg Aleck/LAT photo)

4. Four top-10 drivers won't make the Chase. Historically, the turnover among drivers in the top 10 tends to be about four. That number will hold this year, as four guys who made the Chase last year will fall out this year. With the Chase field expanded to 12 drivers in 2007, that means six guys who missed the Chase last year will make it this year.

5. There will be at least one surprise winner. The Car of Tomorrow is supposed to tighten competition and sharply close the difference between the haves and the have-nots. If that's true, it increases the likelihood of a mid-pack team making it into victory lane. Two guys to watch are Bobby Labonte at Petty Enterprises and Mark Martin at Ginn Racing.

6. Chip Ganassi returns to victory lane. The addition of Juan Montoya adds tremendous depth and talent to Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates. But Montoya won't be the first Ganassi driver to win a Cup race since 2002. Reed Sorenson will be. Sorenson knocked on the door a couple of times last year. This year, he'll kick it in.

7. Dave Blaney will earn more points than any other Toyota driver. Toyota makes its much-publicized debut in Nextel Cup this season with three teams and seven full-time cars. Of the seven Toyota drivers, Dave Blaney will have the best year. Why? He's in the top 35 in owner points, which makes him one of only two Toyota drivers guaranteed to start all of the first five races (Dale Jarrett is other). Blaney is also driving for Bill Davis Racing, the lead development team for Toyota, and the only one of the three teams that isn't a start-up.

8. The over under for Toyotas in the Daytona 500: Five. Of the seven Toyota Camrys entered in the Daytona 500, five will qualify. Blaney and Jarrett are locked in the field, leaving A.J. Allmendinger, Brian Vickers, David Reutimann, Michael Waltrip and Jeremy Mayfield among the 20-25 drivers racing for the final eight spots in the field. Of that group, three will make it, two won't.

9. Your Chase field is: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, Casey Mears, Scott Riggs.

10. Your champion is: Kevin Harvick. Hardly a radical pick, "Happy" had a dream year in 2006, winning a combined 14 races in the Cup and Busch Series and claiming the Busch title by the greatest margin in NASCAR history. With a renewed Richard Childress team around him, Harvick has matured to the point where he is racing with the right blend of intelligence and aggression.
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