SPEED.com's Editor-in-Chief Tom Jensen. (Image: SPEED)
As expected, the battle for the final spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup went down to the bitter end Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway, with Brian Vickers narrowly edging out Kyle Busch to make it in.
A month ago, I would have told you that this year’s Chase would almost certainly come down to a battle between Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, the two drivers who’ve won five of the last seven titles between them. And truth is, if I had to bet money, I’d still put it on those two. But a lot of things have happened in the last four races or so to juggle the mix.
The Chase is all about peaking at the right time, putting together a string of consistently excellent finishes at the right time. And while Stewart has had a brilliant season, he’s been ice cold lately. In his first 22 races of the season, Stewart only finished outside the top 10 four times.
But in the last four races, Stewart has finished 17th, 33rd, 11th and 17th a four-race average of 19.500. Stewart professed not to be worried about that after the Richmond race. “They are not going to give a championship trophy off the last four weeks, so, no, I'm not,” he said when asked if he was concerned over his recent performance. Still, you have to wonder.
For his part, the normally calm Johnson was visibly upset with his 11th-place finish at Richmond, the fifth time in the last six races he’s failed to finish in the top 10. “Right now I'm just not happy with how we ran tonight, and, you know, we'll go on and see what happens,” he said. “ But again, it's going to be a tough Chase, and I guess that's it. Ran like s--t.”
The flip side is that a bunch of the Chasers come into NASCAR’s playoff round riding impressive hot streaks.
Richmond winner Denny Hamlin has two victories, three top fives and five top 10s in his last five races. “Our cars have been getting a little bit better,” said Hamlin. “We are starting to bring better cars to the racetrack, and you know, like I said earlier in the year, we were 5 percent or 10 percent off in just about every area. I think it's down to about 3 to 5 percent to be honest with you.”
Vickers, the last driver in the Chase party, is also one of the hottest, earning seven top-10s in the last nine races, a span in which his worst finish is 12th. That’s the kind of consistency that could pay off handsomely in the Chase.
“There's a lot of challenging teams in this Chase, very competitive teams, talented drivers, teams,” said Vickers. “So we have got a big road ahead of us. But are we capable of it? Absolutely. I think we have proven that. It doesn't mean that we will. We have still got a lot of work ahead of us.”