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NASCAR Sprint-Cup Series
JENSEN: More Questions Than Answers
Kyle Busch swept the NASCAR Nationwide and Sprint Cup races over the weekend, capturing the Cup event on his birthday...
Tom Jensen  |  Posted May 04, 2009   Charlotte, NC
SPEED.com's Editor-in-Chief Tom Jensen. (Image: SPEED)

Ten races are in the books on the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and you could make a compelling argument that things aren’t any clearer than they were when the first wheel turned in anger to kick off Daytona Speedweeks.

Which is a somewhat fancy way of saying there still is no clear-cut favorite to become the 2009 Sprint Cup Champion. What we’ve seen so far are a bunch of micro streaks and trends, small flashes of performance that seem to point in a given direction, but nothing really sustainable. In fact, we may be headed for the most wide-open season in years.

Still, it’s worth paying attention to history. In the last 20 years, only once has an eventual NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion been further back than seventh in points after 10 races. That was in 2002, when Tony Stewart was 10th. So don’t expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Kasey Kahne or Jamie McMurray to make a miracle drive to the title. History says it won’t happen. Not this year, anyway.

At the top of the points right now is Jeff Gordon. Given his pedigree — four championships already, all with Hendrick Motorsports — it would surprise no one if Gordon finally completes his “drive for five” and wins his first Cup title since 2001. He’s got the team in place to do it and the talent, certainly. But it’s no slam dunk. Gordon’s aching back is a concern and his last two races haven’t been as strong as some he’s had earlier in the campaign.

Behind Gordon come the two most surprising contenders in my book, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart, two guys who like Gordon are past series champions and therefore have garage cred when it comes to being in the title mix.

After three mostly frustrating years with Penske Championship Racing, Busch finally has shown the form that he had when he won a championship with Roush Fenway Racing in 2004. Busch the elder already has one race victory this season and consistently has run near the front for most of the year, something that didn’t happen last year.

Busch comes with questions, too, though. Reportedly in the final year of his deal with Penske, will Silly Season distract from the team? For that matter, will Chrysler’s death knell have impact on the Penske Dodge operation? And if things don’t go well, especially down the stretch, can Busch keep his temper in check enough not to damage the team chemistry with the No. 2 Dodge Charger crew?

Then there’s Stewart, arguably the story of the season so far in NASCAR. No one, and I mean no one, thought that 10 races into the season, the newly minted co-owner/driver of the No. 14 Chevrolet Impala would be just 39 points out of first place in the Cup points standings. Historically, Stewart has been a slow, slow starter, not coming alive until the hot summer months, when the tracks get greasy and the grip gets low. And yet, Stewart has finished second twice in the last three races and has finished fourth or better in four of the last five races.

The big question for Stewart’s squad is sustainability. Yes, this team has far exceeded expectations. But as good as they’ve been so far, going through the pressure of a Chase for the Sprint Cup for the first time as a team could be something wholly different. Time will tell.


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