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JENSEN: Is Chase Wide Open Again?
Jimmie Johnson is only 7 points behind Brad Keselowski now…
Tom Jensen  |  Posted October 14, 2012   Concord, NC
Jimmie Johnson, (Left) talks to Brad Keselowski, (Right) in the garage area during practice for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. (Photo: Getty Images)
“When you strike at a king, you must kill him.” — Ralph Waldo Emerson

Watching Saturday night’s race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, it was hard not to think of the great American poet/essayist Emerson or Denny Hamlin, two names that rarely go together. But in the case they do.

A quick recap: Coming into Saturday night’s race, Brad Keselowski had won two of the first four races in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. He was cruising to a third Chase victory in the Bank of America 500 when he ran out of gas on Lap 276 of the 334-lap race. Instead of winning the race, Keselowski finished 11th, which is still a more than respectable result.

But it wasn’t the win Keselowski needed to establish clear control in the Chase.

Over the next five races, we’ll all find out whether Keselowski’s mistake was merely an anomaly, a blip on the radar screen, in his drive to a first championship, or whether it total derails his title hopes.

Had Keselowski held on and won at Charlotte, he would have left with a lead of 21 points over Jimmie Johnson and 29 over Hamlin. Instead, his margins are 7 points on Johnson and 15 on Hamlin. The difference might not sound like a lot, but it’s huge.

Keselowski had a chance — metaphorically speaking, of course — to kill the title hopes of Johnson and Hamlin, and instead left them both very much in contention.

It was just two years ago that Hamlin left the eighth race of the Chase comfortably ahead of Johnson in the points but gave away the title by poor fuel mileage management at Phoenix and an unforced driving error at Homestead.

In 2010 Hamlin struck at the king — then four-time champ Johnson — and didn’t kill him and paid a dear price for not doing so.

Now it’s Keselowski’s turn.

Prior to the Chase, I picked Keselowski to win it all, followed by Hamlin, Johnson, Bowyer and Kasey Kahne. Read my pre-Chase picks here:

I still believe the season will end with Keselowski as the champion.

Now, though, the title race is wide open.

Johnson got wrecked at Talladega and finished 17th there, but in the other four Chase races so far has finished second, third or fourth each time. Hamlin already has one win and one runner-up finish in the Chase.

In order for Keselowski to win, he has to avoid the kind of mistakes Hamlin made in 2010 and not let himself get psyched out by the now five-time champion.

For all three drivers, the margin for error now is pretty close to zero. The only way one of the championship contenders can stumble in any of the next five races and still claim the title is if they all stumble. And if they do all stumble, that might even open the door for Bowyer or Kahne to step up.

It would not surprise me one bit to see Keselowski score a dominating victory in Kansas next week and reassert himself in a positive way.

By the same token, Johnson or Hamlin, emboldened by the opening given to them on Saturday night, might suddenly win a couple of races in a row themselves.

The best part?

We’ll just have to wait and see.

So far we’ve witnessed a terrific championship battle among some heavyweight teams and it looks like the intensity is only going to pick up from here.

Should be a heck of a finish to the season.

Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief of SPEED.com, Senior NASCAR Editor at RACER and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. You can follow him online at twitter.com/tomjensen100.
The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED
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