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Sprint Cup
HEMBREE: A Jumble Of Numbers
Throw caution to the wind – Talladega’s up next…
NASCAR teams head to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, the biggest track on the circuit. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
Sometimes numbers lie.
NASCAR attendance figures, for one example. National Football League roster weights, for another. Speedway concession stand price lists, for yet another – no way that tiny order of fries could cost six bucks.
But, for the most part, numbers give a fairly accurate portrayal of what’s happening in the sport at any given moment, and they help to explain why the Chase for the Sprint Cup is rapidly becoming a show for a few standouts.
Three races into the Chase, on three markedly different tracks, Brad Keselowski has an average finish of 2.6. Two of those finishes are wins. Jimmie Johnson has the same average – 2.6 – through three events with the maddeningly relentless consistency the No. 48 team can show when it’s geared up, as in finishes of second, second and fourth.
No one else in the Chase group is even close to that sterling sort of average. It’s no surprise, then, that Keselowski is first and Johnson second as the playoffs move on to the formidable fortress that is Talladega Superspeedway this weekend.
Third is Denny Hamlin, whose Chase average finish is 8.3.
Drivers who are in the mushy middle in the Chase standings have mediocre averages – Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10.6, Martin Truex Jr. 10.6, Tony Stewart 11.0.
Stewart rolled out a strikingly dramatic average – 6.3 – over 10 races in winning the Chase last year. That mark, of course, was boosted by Stewart’s ridiculously high total of Chase victories – five.
Keselowski is on pace to surpass Stewart’s 2011 run. If he wins two of every three Chase races, he’ll finish the 10-race run with six victories.
That’s unlikely, of course, but Keselowski and his team have been golden so far, and crew chief Paul Wolfe is making his opponents look a little silly, at least in relative terms.
At Talladega, the numbers from past races mean almost nothing. Doesn’t matter if they’re accurate or twisted.
The only thing less predictable than a Talladega finish is Lindsay Lohan’s hair color this week. A driver with the lead at the white flag could be 10th at the finish – or worse, he could be parked on his roof on the backstretch.
Success in the past there means only that the successful driver knows the intricacies of the Talladega draft, that he has good cars and, perhaps most notably, that he’s generally lucky.
Cataclysms often pile on top of cataclysms at Talladega, and the strength of the draft is important only if you’re in the proper place in it.
The race there this Sunday – the final restrictor-plate event of the year – has been called a crapshoot, and that term is as good as any other.
It could enhance the numbers for those already running strong in the battle for the championship, or it could provide a lifeline to those in the middle of the standings.
Mike Hembree is NASCAR Editor for SPEED.com and has been covering motorsports for 30 years. He is a six-time winner of the National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year Award.
The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED
NASCAR attendance figures, for one example. National Football League roster weights, for another. Speedway concession stand price lists, for yet another – no way that tiny order of fries could cost six bucks.
But, for the most part, numbers give a fairly accurate portrayal of what’s happening in the sport at any given moment, and they help to explain why the Chase for the Sprint Cup is rapidly becoming a show for a few standouts.
Three races into the Chase, on three markedly different tracks, Brad Keselowski has an average finish of 2.6. Two of those finishes are wins. Jimmie Johnson has the same average – 2.6 – through three events with the maddeningly relentless consistency the No. 48 team can show when it’s geared up, as in finishes of second, second and fourth.
No one else in the Chase group is even close to that sterling sort of average. It’s no surprise, then, that Keselowski is first and Johnson second as the playoffs move on to the formidable fortress that is Talladega Superspeedway this weekend.
Third is Denny Hamlin, whose Chase average finish is 8.3.
Drivers who are in the mushy middle in the Chase standings have mediocre averages – Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10.6, Martin Truex Jr. 10.6, Tony Stewart 11.0.
Stewart rolled out a strikingly dramatic average – 6.3 – over 10 races in winning the Chase last year. That mark, of course, was boosted by Stewart’s ridiculously high total of Chase victories – five.
Keselowski is on pace to surpass Stewart’s 2011 run. If he wins two of every three Chase races, he’ll finish the 10-race run with six victories.
That’s unlikely, of course, but Keselowski and his team have been golden so far, and crew chief Paul Wolfe is making his opponents look a little silly, at least in relative terms.
At Talladega, the numbers from past races mean almost nothing. Doesn’t matter if they’re accurate or twisted.
The only thing less predictable than a Talladega finish is Lindsay Lohan’s hair color this week. A driver with the lead at the white flag could be 10th at the finish – or worse, he could be parked on his roof on the backstretch.
Success in the past there means only that the successful driver knows the intricacies of the Talladega draft, that he has good cars and, perhaps most notably, that he’s generally lucky.
Cataclysms often pile on top of cataclysms at Talladega, and the strength of the draft is important only if you’re in the proper place in it.
The race there this Sunday – the final restrictor-plate event of the year – has been called a crapshoot, and that term is as good as any other.
It could enhance the numbers for those already running strong in the battle for the championship, or it could provide a lifeline to those in the middle of the standings.
Mike Hembree is NASCAR Editor for SPEED.com and has been covering motorsports for 30 years. He is a six-time winner of the National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year Award.
The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED
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