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"The thing history teaches us is that we usually fail to learn from history…” – Darrell Waltrip
From the day the “Chase for the Cup” format was unveiled before the 2004 season, it has been the best innovation in NASCAR since SAFER barriers. It adds a needed boost to the finish of the longest pro sports schedule in the world with playoff-style excitement, and avoids an occasional snoozer of a points race.
With the fifth edition of the Chase starting this week, what statistical trends have emerged in the first four years? A few more seasons of data will make the trends more definitive (and a few tweaks changed the statistical format slightly for last year’s scramble), but here’s what the history since 2004 reveals:
- Kyle Busch is the top seed this year after a sparkling regular season. Of the previous top-seeded drivers entering the Chase, two won the title (Stewart in ‘05 and Johnson last year) while Jeff Gordon finished third in 2004 and Matt Kenseth was second in 2006. If history holds, Kid Kyle should finish third
- Tony Stewart won in 2005 as the top seed, and is the only titlist to not win a race in the post-season. Jimmie Johnson won last year’s Cup with four victories in a row after taking the ’06 title with only one Chase victory. Johnson has the record for Chase wins in a season with four in 2004 and 2007, and leads with 11 overall wins – at least one per season – since the format began.
- Kurt Busch, the initial Chase-format champ in 2004, won the first-ever Chase race at Loudon. He didn’t win again, but miraculously held on at the season finale despite losing a wheel mid-race. (More minutiae: Busch took the points lead for good on the Tuesday following Talladega when race victor Dale Earnhardt Jr. uttered a four-letter word on NBC and lost the lead due to NASCAR penalties.)
- Kurt Busch is the lowest-seeded driver (seventh) to climb to the title. Busch won by eight points over Johnson, the closest Chase margin. Johnson won last year by 77 points, the largest margin.
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