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Sprint Cup
CUP: Seven Who Could Surprise In Last Five Races
At least seven non-Chase drivers have a shot at going to victory lane in an upcoming race...
Mark Martin has been surprisingly winless this season. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
It should have come as no surprise when Jamie McMurray won last week’s Chase race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, playing the spoiler against teams vying for the Sprint Cup championship.
McMurray already had two big wins in the 2010 season and finished second in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May.
And it was not the first time McMurray had been a spoiler in the Chase. He won last year’s Chase race at Talladega in his final season with Roush Fenway Racing.
But McMurray’s win marked just the third time in the past four years that a non-Chase driver has won one of the 10 Chase races.
No one did it in 2008, and in 2007, Greg Biffle didn’t make the Chase but won at Kansas.
Prior to that, there were plenty of spoilers in the Chase, and they were a mixture of frequent winners and big surprises.
Tony Stewart missed the Chase in 2006, but won three of the 10 Chase races. Brian Vickers and Biffle were also non-Chase drivers that won in the final 10 weeks of ’06.
Jeff Gordon missed the Chase in 2005, but won the October race at Martinsville that year. Dale Jarrett and Kyle Busch, meanwhile, were surprise winners during the ’05 Chase while Joe Nemechek and Biffle won during the ’04 Chase.
Who else will be spoilers this year? Can anyone – other than McMurray, who is a favorite to win at Talladega again – be a surprise winner during one of the final five Chase races?
Martinsville, Talladega, Texas, Phoenix and Homestead all pose unique challenges.
Here’s a look at seven non-Chase drivers who could win one of the final five races?
1. Mark Martin
It’s shocking that Martin hasn’t won yet after a five-win season last year. Who could have imagined that McMurray would have three wins by now, and Martin none?
Though Martin has struggled all season, his Hendrick Motorsports team has improved in recent weeks. And with 40 career victories, the 51-year-old Martin has proven he can win anytime and anywhere.
He has won at four of the five remaining tracks (he has never won at Homestead) and typically excels on 1.5-mile ovals. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win one of the five, with Texas and Phoenix his best opportunities.
2. Juan Pablo Montoya
Montoya has one win this season, on the road course at Watkins Glen, and was expected to be a huge spoiler in the Chase after an August-Sept. hot streak, but has been disappointing in the past five weeks.
Montoya has run well in the past at four of the five tracks, with top-five finishes at Martinsville, Talladega and Phoenix. He’s still searching for his first oval-track victory in NASCAR, and it would not be a shock to see him get it in the final five weeks of the season.
3. David Reutimann
Reutimann won at Chicagoland Speedway in July and finished second at Bristol in August, and has run well enough often enough to win again.
He is coming off consecutive top-10 finishes and could finish strong. He has two top-10 finishes at Phoenix, one at Texas and has won a pole at both Texas and Homestead.
He seems to run better at the intermediate tracks, so keep an eye on him at Texas, Phoenix and Homestead.
4. Ryan Newman
Newman won in April at Phoenix and typically is strong at the short, flat tracks. He has four top-fives at Phoenix and six at Martinsville, so he should be in contention at both of those tracks.
He also has a win at Texas and both he and Stewart-Haas Racing have been good on restrictor-plate tracks (he won the 2008 Daytona 500 with Penske Racing).
Newman has 13 career victories and, like Martin is capable of winning just about anywhere. He has been the strongest and most consistent non-Chase driver over the last five weeks, so another win is not out of the question.
5. Kasey Kahne
Despite the tension that has erupted between Kahne and his Richard Petty Motorsports team in recent weeks, Kahne is another driver capable of winning anywhere.
He has a win at Texas and top-five finishes at each of the five tracks. And though RPM in is yet another mode of transition, Kahne has 11 wins with the organization, four in the last three years.
If he and his teammates can put their differences behind them, they could make one more trip to victory lane.
6. Joey Logano
After a turbulent first half of the season, the 20-year-old Logano has made significant progress in recent weeks, scoring two top-five and four top-11 finishes in his last six races.
More importantly, he has stayed out of trouble and out of the way of other drivers, which could start to earn him more respect on the track.
In just his second full season, Logano has top-five finishes at Martinsville and Talladega and a top-10 at Phoenix. His only career Cup victory came at New Hampshire, a track similar in size and shape to Phoenix.
Logano is beginning to show the talent and maturity to be a consistent threat. With more frequent appearances in the top five, he is setting himself up to steal a win somewhere.
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
After finishing a dismal 25th in points last year, 2010 couldn’t possibly be any worse for Earnhardt Jr.
It’s been close. After contending for a spot in the Chase in the first half of the season, Earnhardt Jr. has stumbled to 19th in points with just one top-10 finishes in his last 13 races.
He has struggled at so many tracks, it’s hard to imagine him winning anywhere. But the one place where he has an edge is at Talladega, where he has five of his 18 career victories.
Earnhardt Jr.’s two best races of the season were in the two restrictor-plate races at Daytona. He still is as good as anyone at Daytona and Talladega, and Hendrick Motorsports always builds strong restrictor-plate cars.
Earnhardt Jr. also has won at Texas and Phoenix. With just five races left in the season, his Hendrick team is doing a lot of experimenting for next season. If it suddenly hits on something, who knows?
Stranger things have happened during the Chase.
SceneDaily.com • Hermie Sadler to drive for TRG Motorsports at Martinsville
McMurray already had two big wins in the 2010 season and finished second in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May.
And it was not the first time McMurray had been a spoiler in the Chase. He won last year’s Chase race at Talladega in his final season with Roush Fenway Racing.
But McMurray’s win marked just the third time in the past four years that a non-Chase driver has won one of the 10 Chase races.
No one did it in 2008, and in 2007, Greg Biffle didn’t make the Chase but won at Kansas.
Prior to that, there were plenty of spoilers in the Chase, and they were a mixture of frequent winners and big surprises.
Tony Stewart missed the Chase in 2006, but won three of the 10 Chase races. Brian Vickers and Biffle were also non-Chase drivers that won in the final 10 weeks of ’06.
Jeff Gordon missed the Chase in 2005, but won the October race at Martinsville that year. Dale Jarrett and Kyle Busch, meanwhile, were surprise winners during the ’05 Chase while Joe Nemechek and Biffle won during the ’04 Chase.
Who else will be spoilers this year? Can anyone – other than McMurray, who is a favorite to win at Talladega again – be a surprise winner during one of the final five Chase races?
Martinsville, Talladega, Texas, Phoenix and Homestead all pose unique challenges.
Here’s a look at seven non-Chase drivers who could win one of the final five races?
1. Mark Martin
It’s shocking that Martin hasn’t won yet after a five-win season last year. Who could have imagined that McMurray would have three wins by now, and Martin none?
Though Martin has struggled all season, his Hendrick Motorsports team has improved in recent weeks. And with 40 career victories, the 51-year-old Martin has proven he can win anytime and anywhere.
He has won at four of the five remaining tracks (he has never won at Homestead) and typically excels on 1.5-mile ovals. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win one of the five, with Texas and Phoenix his best opportunities.
2. Juan Pablo Montoya
Montoya has one win this season, on the road course at Watkins Glen, and was expected to be a huge spoiler in the Chase after an August-Sept. hot streak, but has been disappointing in the past five weeks.
Montoya has run well in the past at four of the five tracks, with top-five finishes at Martinsville, Talladega and Phoenix. He’s still searching for his first oval-track victory in NASCAR, and it would not be a shock to see him get it in the final five weeks of the season.
3. David Reutimann
Reutimann won at Chicagoland Speedway in July and finished second at Bristol in August, and has run well enough often enough to win again.
He is coming off consecutive top-10 finishes and could finish strong. He has two top-10 finishes at Phoenix, one at Texas and has won a pole at both Texas and Homestead.
He seems to run better at the intermediate tracks, so keep an eye on him at Texas, Phoenix and Homestead.
4. Ryan Newman
Newman won in April at Phoenix and typically is strong at the short, flat tracks. He has four top-fives at Phoenix and six at Martinsville, so he should be in contention at both of those tracks.
He also has a win at Texas and both he and Stewart-Haas Racing have been good on restrictor-plate tracks (he won the 2008 Daytona 500 with Penske Racing).
Newman has 13 career victories and, like Martin is capable of winning just about anywhere. He has been the strongest and most consistent non-Chase driver over the last five weeks, so another win is not out of the question.
5. Kasey Kahne
Despite the tension that has erupted between Kahne and his Richard Petty Motorsports team in recent weeks, Kahne is another driver capable of winning anywhere.
He has a win at Texas and top-five finishes at each of the five tracks. And though RPM in is yet another mode of transition, Kahne has 11 wins with the organization, four in the last three years.
If he and his teammates can put their differences behind them, they could make one more trip to victory lane.
6. Joey Logano
After a turbulent first half of the season, the 20-year-old Logano has made significant progress in recent weeks, scoring two top-five and four top-11 finishes in his last six races.
More importantly, he has stayed out of trouble and out of the way of other drivers, which could start to earn him more respect on the track.
In just his second full season, Logano has top-five finishes at Martinsville and Talladega and a top-10 at Phoenix. His only career Cup victory came at New Hampshire, a track similar in size and shape to Phoenix.
Logano is beginning to show the talent and maturity to be a consistent threat. With more frequent appearances in the top five, he is setting himself up to steal a win somewhere.
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
After finishing a dismal 25th in points last year, 2010 couldn’t possibly be any worse for Earnhardt Jr.
It’s been close. After contending for a spot in the Chase in the first half of the season, Earnhardt Jr. has stumbled to 19th in points with just one top-10 finishes in his last 13 races.
He has struggled at so many tracks, it’s hard to imagine him winning anywhere. But the one place where he has an edge is at Talladega, where he has five of his 18 career victories.
Earnhardt Jr.’s two best races of the season were in the two restrictor-plate races at Daytona. He still is as good as anyone at Daytona and Talladega, and Hendrick Motorsports always builds strong restrictor-plate cars.
Earnhardt Jr. also has won at Texas and Phoenix. With just five races left in the season, his Hendrick team is doing a lot of experimenting for next season. If it suddenly hits on something, who knows?
Stranger things have happened during the Chase.
SceneDaily.com • Hermie Sadler to drive for TRG Motorsports at Martinsville
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