NASCAR Sprint-Cup Series
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CUP: Playing Catch Up A Losing Game
Clint Bowyer has a huge challenge on his hands in terms of title hopes…
Tom Jensen  |  Posted October 18, 2012   Kansas City, KS
Clint Bowyer is among the drivers who could contend for victory over the season's final two weeks. (Photo: Getty Images)
While the Chase for the Sprint Cup remains a tight race between leader Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin, the nine drivers behind them are in varying degrees of trouble.

In truth, anyone behind fifth-place Kasey Kahne is already out of the championship discussion for 2012, with Kahne and fourth-place Clint Bowyer long shots at best.

With five of the 10 races in the books for the 2012 Chase, the top three so far are in their own league. Keselowski leads Johnson by 7 points and Hamlin by 15, with the expectation the title battle will go down to the wire in the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

If history is any indication, the top three drivers will settle things among themselves.

In the eight previous editions of the Chase, the points leader at the halfway mark went on to win the title five times. The lone exceptions came in 2006, when Jeff Burton lost the championship to Jimmie Johnson; a year later, when Jeff Gordon led at the midpoint, only to be beaten by Johnson; and last year, when Carl Edwards led and Tony Stewart won.

Stewart overcame a 24-point deficit after five races last year, while Johnson made up the equivalent of 37 points in ’06.

During Johnson’s championship charge in ’06, he closed out the season’s final five races with one victory, three runner-up finishes and five top 10s. During that time, he had an average finish of 3.2.

Stewart was even better last year, winning three of the final five races of the season and posting an average finish of 2.6.

So, could Bowyer (-28) or Kahne (-35) still make a serious title run?

The answer is yes, but there’s a vast gulf between “could” and “will.”

Let’s look at the season to date.

Bowyer’s best stretch of five races came from the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May through the Sonoma, Calif., road race. During that period, Bowyer won one race, had two top-five finishes and an average finish of 6.40. During those five races, he earned a total of 191 points.

Given that he’s 28 points behind Keselowski, if Bowyer finished out the last five races of the season matching his five best consecutive finishes of the year, he’d need Keselowski to earn no more 162 points in those five races, Johnson to earn no more than 169 points and Hamlin to earn no more than 177 in the final five races of the year.

So far in the Chase, Keselowski has earned 205 points in five races; Johnson has amassed 198 and Hamlin, 187. Bowyer has tallied 180; Kahne, 179.

For Bowyer to win, he either has to hugely step up or hope all three of the guys in front of him stumble, or both.

For Kahne, who is 7 points behind Bowyer, the odds are even worse.

So what has to happen for Bowyer or Kahne to win the championship?

Like Johnson and Stewart before them, both drivers likely would need to win at least one of the final five races and have an average finish of 3.0 or better during that period.

And they’d need help.

When Johnson went on his title run in 2006, Burton led at the halfway point, but collapsed down the stretch, with an average finish of 23.4 over the last five races, including a 38th and a 42nd.

Bowyer will be racing on home turf this weekend, a Kansas native at Kansas Speedway. So far he’s had a dream first season with Michael Waltrip Racing, one that has energized both Bowyer’s career and the MWR organization as a whole.

But if wants to wrest the title away from the top three before the season is over, it’s now or never. And “now” doesn’t look promising.

Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief of SPEED.com, Senior NASCAR Editor at RACER and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. You can follow him online at twitter.com/tomjensen100.
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