NASCAR Sprint-Cup Series
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CUP: History Works Against Harvick
Twice, Jimmie Johnson has rallied with three races to go, and Kevin Harvick will need to do the same to win this year's title...
Tom Jensen  |  Posted November 01, 2010   Charlotte, NC
Kevin Harvick (Pictured) is third in the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings but within striking distance of leader Jimmie Johnson. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
With just three races to go in the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, the points battle is tighter than it has been since the advent of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

History suggests some trends to look for over the final trio of races.

In the six prior editions of the Chase, the driver leading the points after 33 races has gone on to win the championship four times. The two exceptions were in 2006, when Jimmie Johnson rallied from 26 points behind Matt Kenseth to win by 56 points, and ’07, when Johnson turned a nine-point deficit to Jeff Gordon into a 77-point margin of victory.

No Chase-era driver has won from third in the points after 33 races; nor has any driver in the Chase been more than 26 points back with three races to go and gone on to win the championship.

But it can be done.

In 1992, Alan Kulwicki was 47 points behind Bill Elliott and eight behind Davey Allison with three races left when he staged what is regarded as one of the greatest rallies in NASCAR to win his only championship.

To go the distance, though, third-place Kevin Harvick will have to be nearly flawless and likely will have to do better than Kulwicki did in ’92, when he ended that season with finishes of 12th, fourth and second.

The next race at Texas Motor Speedway, where the Cup teams will throw down on Sunday, will be critical.
Jimmie Johnson has proven it's possible to come from behind and win the NASCAR Sprint Cup title. (Photo: LAT Photographic)

At TMS, Johnson has one victory and top-five finishes in exactly half of his starts there, seven for 14 including a runner-up finish to championship runner-up Denny Hamlin in the spring. Harvick, by comparison, has just three top-five finishes in 15 Texas races. Hamlin has the victory earlier this season and four top-fives in nine starts.

Breaking it down even further, Hamlin has finished first and second in his last two starts at the 1.5-mile track. Johnson has two runner-up finishes in his last three Texas starts, the other race being last year, when Sam Hornish Jr. put him in the wall on lap 2. By comparison, Harvick’s best Texas finish was a third-place run in 2006.

“When you go back and look at the stats over the last four years, top-10s do not cut it,” Harvick said. “You got to be in the top five and being up front every week. ... You know, it's important to continue to do that over the next three weeks.”

Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief of SPEED.com, Senior NASCAR Editor at RACER and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. You can follow him online at twitter.com/tomjensen100 and e-mail him at Jensen is the author of “Cheating: The Bad Things Good NASCAR Nextel Cup Racers Do In Pursuit of Speed,” and has appeared on numerous television and radio shows. Jensen is the past President of the National Motorsports Press Association and an NMPA Writer of the Year.

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