NASCAR Sprint-Cup Series
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CUP: Duel In Desert Shaping Up
Jimmie Johnson’s average finish at Phoenix is 4.9...
Tom Jensen  |  Posted November 10, 2010   Charlotte, NC
Jimmie Johnson has four wins at Phoenix. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
Denny Hamlin has the guns, but Jimmie Johnson has the numbers, at least at the 1-mile Phoenix International Raceway.

PIR hosts the Kobalt Tools 500 on Sunday, and Hamlin comes in red hot, having rallied to win the AAA Texas 500 and taken a 33-point lead over the four-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup champion.

History would suggest that Hamlin is the prohibitive favorite to capture his first Sprint Cup title this year: The last driver to lead the Sprint Cup points with two races left in the season and not go on to win the championship was Bill Elliott, who coughed up a lead of 70 points over Davey Allison and 85 over the late Alan Kulwicki in 1992.

That said, PIR is arguably Johnson’s best track, a place where his average finish is 4.9 to Hamlin’s 11.6. If each driver has an average day at Phoenix and leads the same number of laps, Johnson would make up 28 points out of his 33-point deficit. Obviously, it likely won’t play out that neatly, but the point is Johnson will have a good chance to make up ground this weekend.

Statistically, here’s how the 12 Chase racers match up with eight of 10 races in the books:

1. Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
2010 Rundown
Eight wins, 14 top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 12.9
Led 19 races for 994 laps
PIR Outlook:
Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 11.6 in 10 races

2. Jimmie Johnson, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
2010 Rundown
Six wins, 15 top fives, 21 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 12.7
Led 23 races for 1,314 laps
PIR Outlook:
Kevin Harvick rolled up three Sprint Cup wins in 2010. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
Four wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 4.9 in 14 races

3. Kevin Harvick, No. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
2010 Rundown
Three wins, 15 top fives, 24 top 10s
Average finish of 8.9
Led 16 races for 357 laps
PIR Outlook:
Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
Average finish of 15.0 in 15 races


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