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NASCAR Sprint-Cup Series
CUP: Kenseth The Favorite This Time Out
Greg Biffle is a three-time Homestead winner...
Tom Jensen  |  Posted November 19, 2009   Homestead, FL
Matt Kenseth is currently fourteenth in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points standings. (Photo: LAT Photographic)

This week’s installment of 5 To Watch, SPEEDtv.com’s fearless weekly prognostication about who’ll win the upcoming NASCAR Sprint Cup race, is at best a conundrum.

On the one hand, this is Ford Championship Weekend and the Roush Fenway Racing boys have absolutely owned Homestead-Miami Speedway, where they’ve won five Cup races in a row, and six of the last seven.

On the other hand, the Fords have been off the pace relative to the Chevrolets all season long. After Matt Kenseth opened the 2009 season with back-to-back victories in the Daytona 500 and the Auto Club 500, Fords have only won once in the last 33 races: Lame duck Jamie McMurray was a surprise winner at Talladega.

So does one pick someone from the Chevy camp or from Ford? Or Toyota or Dodge, for that matter?

Here’s who I’m going with in this week’s 5 To Watch:

1. MATT KENSETH, Roush Fenway Racing — At the end of the day, it comes down to one thing when evaluating equals, or near-equals: Who has been running better lately? And in the case of Roush Fenway Racing, that honor belongs to Kenseth, the 2007 Ford 400 winner. In the nine races so far in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Kenseth has finished in the top three a total of three times, including a runner-up finish at Lowe’s Motor Speedway and a third at Texas Motor Speedway, both 1.5-mile tracks, as is Homestead.

If any of the Roush Fenway Racing boys can get it done on Sunday, it should be Kenseth.

2. KURT BUSCH, Penske Racing — When he drove for Roush Fenway Racing back in 2002, Busch was the first of the team’s drivers to break on through with a victory at Homestead. All told, he’s posted three top-five finishes in eight starts here.

More than that, though, Busch has been very good on the 1.5-mile tracks this season, winning at Atlanta in the spring and Texas in the fall. And without question, he and soon-to-be-departing crew chief Pat Tryson would like to give each other one more victory before separating, especially with an outside chance to move up to third in points.

3. GREG BIFFLE , Roush Fenway Racing — The Biff hasn’t exactly been wearing ‘em out with great runs lately, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that he has three victories at Homestead, more than any other driver. Along with two-time winner Tony Stewart, Biffle is one of only two drivers with multiple victories here.

Could Biffle work the kind of magic he did in 2004-06, when he went back-to-back-to-back at Homestead? Maybe, just maybe.

4. DENNY HAMLIN, Joe Gibbs Racing — Hamlin’s best finishes at Homestead have been a pair of third-place finishes. Still, his Toyotas have been very fast of late: In his last four races, Hamlin has one victory, one runner-up finish and one third-place. That’s good enough to earn some votes here.

5. JUAN PABLO MONTOYA, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing — Montoya lives in South Florida and has a huge fan base in the massive Latino community here. And with five top-five finishes in the Chase, he just might be ready to finally win a Sprint Cup race on an oval track.

Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief for SPEEDtv.com, the former Executive Editor of NASCAR Scene and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. He is the author of ?Cheating: The Bad Things Good NASCAR Nextel Cup Racers Do In Pursuit of SPEED,? and has appeared on television and radio shows to discuss NASCAR racing. Jensen is the past President of the National Motorsports Press Association. Jensen is the 1997 National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year and has won numerous national and state awards for news reporting, columns and feature writing. The Answer Man is back at SPEEDtv.com. Tom Jensen answers your questions during every race week and looks forward to hearing from you - please e-mail it to




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