CUP: Johnson, Hamlin The Ones To Watch

Sprint Cup

CUP: Johnson, Hamlin The Ones To Watch

Jimmie Johnson has won five of the last six NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Martinsville Speedway...

Tom Jensen | Posted October 22, 2009 Charlotte, NC

Jimmie Johnson won the last five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Martinsville races and has an average finish of 1.5 at the track. (Photo: LAT Photographic)

Halfway through the Chase for the Sprint Cup and it’s time for a little review: Each Thursday in this column, I pick who I think the top five finishers will be in the weekend’s upcoming race.

So far, through five of 10 races, I’ve had the race winner in my top five selections three times, missing with Mark Martin in New Hampshire and Tony Stewart. But the other three races, Jimmie Johnson has made it look easy.

I’ve been a little luckier with the runner-up finishers: In every one of the five Chase races so far, the second-place man has come from my top five. All told, I’ve correctly picked 11 of 25 top-five finishers in the Chase so far, or 44 percent. Not great, certainly, but given that 28 different drivers have posted top fives this season, not too shabby, either.

I mention the above in passing, because honestly, this week’s 5 To Watch list for the TUMS Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway is the easiest list to put together all season. To wit:

1. JIMMIE JOHNSON, Hendrick Motorsports — Sorry, haters, but the No. 48 might be just as good this week at Martinsville as it was at Lowe’s Motor Speedway, where Johnson won the race, led the most laps, qualified on the pole and led every practice. In his last six Martinsville races, Johnson’s average finish is an unheard of 1.5.

How do you bet against five victories in the last six races and 11 finishes of fourth or better in the last 14 starts? The answer is simple: You don’t, not successfully, anyway. If anyone other than Johnson wins this weekend, consider it an upset.

2. DENNY HAMLIN, Joe Gibbs Racing — The only driver to beat Johnson in the last six races here is the young Virginia native, who won here back in the spring of 2008. In his last six Martinsville starts, Hamlin’s finishing average is a very sporty 3.166.

Besides, Hamlin has a lot of experience here, and he desperately wants to turn around what so far has been a dismal Chase.

3. JEFF GORDON, Hendrick Motorsports — This season, Gordon is the king of runner-up finishes, having come home second a whopping eight times, including twice in the Chase.

Gordon is certainly no slouch at Martinsville, either, where he has seven victories and 21 top-five finishes, as well as a staggering 2,760 laps led. If you’re betting the trifecta this weekend, include the four-time champion somewhere in the mix.

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Tom Jensen

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