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Sprint Cup
CUP: History Favors Strong Starters
Being in the top five in points right now is huge...
Jimmie Johnson performs a burnout after winning Sunday at Dover. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
What’s the best way to finish in the top five in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points? Easy — start out strong in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
In the six prior years that the Chase was run, drivers who left the second Chase race at Dover International Speedway in the top five in points finished the year in the top five 73.3 percent of the time.
It sounds crazy, perhaps, given that the Sprint Cup drivers continue to insist that this year’s season-finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway could come down to four or five drivers duking it out for the title. Or their insistence that this year’s Chase field is the most closely matched ever.
But the cold, hard truth is that rarely does a driver dig himself out of a big early hole to win the title. Jimmie Johnson was eighth after Dover in 2006 and rebounded to win the championship then. No one else has won the title from outside the top five, two races in.
Aside from Johnson’s 2006 season, the biggest jump from outside the top five to inside came in 2007, when Matt Kenseth was 10th after Dover and finished fourth.
All told, from 2004-09, the 30 top-five drivers after Dover finished their respective seasons in the top five in points 22 times.
That strongly suggests that this year’s battle will come down to a fight among the current top five in points: Denny Hamlin, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick.
And here’s another statistical nugget that supports that assertion as well: There are eight races left on the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule. The series has not raced at Kansas Speedway or Homestead-Miami Speedway yet.
Of the six tracks left on the schedule where the Cup Series has raced already this year, here’s who has the most points at those tracks: Kyle Busch, 853; Harvick, 828; Kurt Busch, 819; Hamlin, 818; and Johnson, 815.
In other words, the top five drivers in points right now also are the top-five point-getters at the remaining Chase tracks where teams have already raced this year.
That’s all good news for Hamlin, Johnson, Harvick and the brothers Busch. For everyone else, not so much.
Still, the Chase is young and no one yet looks like a lock for the championship. But for the most part, the big guns probably will prove to be those already in the top half in points. And you can rest assured the drivers and crew chiefs are thinking deeply about points already.
“Everybody is looking at the point standings for sure,” said Jeff Burton, who ran out of gas at New Hampshire and finished 15th, but rebounded with a runner-up effort at Dover.
Burton, who is in seventh place with his Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, knows the challenges that lie ahead of him.
“Our goal at this point is just to keep going,” said Burton at Dover. “We're not going to leave a race in the next few weeks with the points lead. We started far enough behind where that is just not going to happen. Last week was really, really frustrating. We had a great car ... and we weren't able to capitalize and ran out of gas with two (laps) to go. We got lucky to finish 15th. Today, we did a good job.”
For others, though, the Chase may be over almost before it began. Greg Biffle was 17th at New Hampshire, but at Dover pitted early in a run, only to have teammate Kenseth miss pit road and shred a tire, which sent the yellow flag flying. Biffle lost two laps in the process.
“That probably right there was kind of our Chase hopes,” said Biffle. “We’re not out of it, but those two finishes are not a way to start the Chase off.”
Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief of SPEED.com, Senior NASCAR Editor at RACER and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. You can follow him online at twitter.com/tomjensen100 and e-mail him at Jensen is the author of “Cheating: The Bad Things Good NASCAR Nextel Cup Racers Do In Pursuit of Speed,” and has appeared on numerous television and radio shows. Jensen is the past President of the National Motorsports Press Association and an NMPA Writer of the Year.
In the six prior years that the Chase was run, drivers who left the second Chase race at Dover International Speedway in the top five in points finished the year in the top five 73.3 percent of the time.
It sounds crazy, perhaps, given that the Sprint Cup drivers continue to insist that this year’s season-finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway could come down to four or five drivers duking it out for the title. Or their insistence that this year’s Chase field is the most closely matched ever.
But the cold, hard truth is that rarely does a driver dig himself out of a big early hole to win the title. Jimmie Johnson was eighth after Dover in 2006 and rebounded to win the championship then. No one else has won the title from outside the top five, two races in.
Aside from Johnson’s 2006 season, the biggest jump from outside the top five to inside came in 2007, when Matt Kenseth was 10th after Dover and finished fourth.
All told, from 2004-09, the 30 top-five drivers after Dover finished their respective seasons in the top five in points 22 times.
That strongly suggests that this year’s battle will come down to a fight among the current top five in points: Denny Hamlin, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick.
And here’s another statistical nugget that supports that assertion as well: There are eight races left on the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule. The series has not raced at Kansas Speedway or Homestead-Miami Speedway yet.
Of the six tracks left on the schedule where the Cup Series has raced already this year, here’s who has the most points at those tracks: Kyle Busch, 853; Harvick, 828; Kurt Busch, 819; Hamlin, 818; and Johnson, 815.
In other words, the top five drivers in points right now also are the top-five point-getters at the remaining Chase tracks where teams have already raced this year.
That’s all good news for Hamlin, Johnson, Harvick and the brothers Busch. For everyone else, not so much.
Still, the Chase is young and no one yet looks like a lock for the championship. But for the most part, the big guns probably will prove to be those already in the top half in points. And you can rest assured the drivers and crew chiefs are thinking deeply about points already.
“Everybody is looking at the point standings for sure,” said Jeff Burton, who ran out of gas at New Hampshire and finished 15th, but rebounded with a runner-up effort at Dover.
Burton, who is in seventh place with his Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, knows the challenges that lie ahead of him.
“Our goal at this point is just to keep going,” said Burton at Dover. “We're not going to leave a race in the next few weeks with the points lead. We started far enough behind where that is just not going to happen. Last week was really, really frustrating. We had a great car ... and we weren't able to capitalize and ran out of gas with two (laps) to go. We got lucky to finish 15th. Today, we did a good job.”
For others, though, the Chase may be over almost before it began. Greg Biffle was 17th at New Hampshire, but at Dover pitted early in a run, only to have teammate Kenseth miss pit road and shred a tire, which sent the yellow flag flying. Biffle lost two laps in the process.
“That probably right there was kind of our Chase hopes,” said Biffle. “We’re not out of it, but those two finishes are not a way to start the Chase off.”
Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief of SPEED.com, Senior NASCAR Editor at RACER and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. You can follow him online at twitter.com/tomjensen100 and e-mail him at Jensen is the author of “Cheating: The Bad Things Good NASCAR Nextel Cup Racers Do In Pursuit of Speed,” and has appeared on numerous television and radio shows. Jensen is the past President of the National Motorsports Press Association and an NMPA Writer of the Year.
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