CUP: Handicapping The Chase

Sprint Cup

CUP: Handicapping The Chase

Is this the year Jeff Gordon gets his fifth championship? We’ll see...

Tom Jensen | Posted September 17, 2009 Charlotte, NC

Will Jeff Gordon win his fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup championship this year? (Photo: LAT Photographic)

OK, folks, time to put up or shut up: The Chase for the Sprint Cup kicks off Sunday with the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and it’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

If the Chase has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected — the championship can be won or lost by a single mistake, anywhere in the Chase. One crash, one muffed pit stop, one tank of gas run dry and it can be the difference between making history and being a footnote to it.

This year’s Chase ought to be interesting.

Eight teams are represented, up from four last year, and all four automakers are represented. Four of the eight teams in the Chase — Stewart-Haas Racing, Red Bull Racing, Richard Petty Motorsports and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing — are making their first playoff appearances. In fact, all the above teams save Red Bull are first-year organizations that have undergone radical restructuring in the last year.

Regardless of where each of the 12 drivers ultimately finishes in the title hunt, each of them and their respective teams deserves credit for getting here in a year where the competition was more intense than ever.

Here’s how I handicap this year’s Chase field. Feel free to e-mail me with your thoughts at speedtvanswerman@gmail.com. We’ll publish some of the best responses prior to Sunday’s race.

1. JEFF GORDON, Hendrick Motorsports — I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Jeff Gordon finally gets one for the thumb, the fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup championship he’s been pursuing since winning his fourth title in 2001.

Gordon drives for this year’s strongest team and has put together impressive top five (12) and top 10 (18) totals, all while flying under the radar. Most of all, his team has improved markedly at the 1.5- and 2-mile tracks, where half the Chase races will be contested.

2. DENNY HAMLIN, Joe Gibbs Racing — Hamlin is this year’s version of what Carl Edwards was last year: someone who’s wickedly fast most everywhere he goes and capable of winning a lot of races. He will give the eventual champion fits and dog him until the last race of the season.

But like Edwards last year, I expect Hamlin to have two bad finishes somewhere in the Chase that prevent him from winning it all. A really treacherous spot for him will be Dover.

3. JIMMIE JOHNSON, Hendrick Motorsports — Johnson has led 1,252 laps this year — Hamlin is second with 992 — and he and crew chief Chad Knaus have proven to be the most clutch combo with the game on the line since Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen ruled the NBA back in the day.

But the fact that Johnson has been unable to sustain good finishes in recent weeks is troublesome, and sooner or later the racing luck that’s been bulletproof for the No. 48 team during the past three Chase will go bad. There’s a reason no one has ever won four championships in a row.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Tom Jensen

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