CUP: Halloween 5 To Watch

Sprint Cup

CUP: Halloween 5 To Watch

David Ragan has two previous top-five finishes at Talladega Superspeedway...

Tom Jensen | Posted October 29, 2009 Talladega, AL

David Ragan has two top-five finishes at Talladega Superspeedway. (Photo: LAT Photographic)

OK, here’s the deal: Usually in this space every week, I use a rigorous mathematical evaluation to pick my five favorites for the upcoming week.

I weigh factors like a driver’s past performance at a given track, how he’s run at similar circuits and what he’s done in the last few weeks. Add it all up, filter in a few other variables and usually it’s pretty easy to put together a list of favorites.

But this weekend is Talladega Superspeedway.

And it’s Halloween, to boot.

Talladega is always a place where strange things happen, and given the timing of this weekend, more mayhem likely will occur. I mean, really, who would have ever picked Ron Bouchard or Lenny Pond or even Brad Keselowski to win their first Sprint Cup race at the wild 2.66-mile superspeedway?

But they all made it happen.

And so, this week’s Halloween 5 To Watch eschews the usual selections of Jimmie Johnson or Tony Stewart or Jeff Gordon. In fact, no Chasers are allowed in this week’s list.

No, this week, I’m going with five underdogs, a rogue’s gallery of long shots looking to make their mark with the big boys. So here goes:

1. DAVID RAGAN, Roush Fenway Racing — Without question, Ragan has been one of the biggest disappointments of 2009, when he was expected to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup and instead is a woeful 28th in points.

But Ragan is a pretty fine restrictor-plate racer, becoming the first driver since Jeff Gordon to earn a top five in the Daytona 500 as a rookie. He’s also finished third and fourth in Talladega Sprint Cup races and won a NASCAR Nationwide Series race here, too. And who knows, maybe the all-new Ford FR9 engine he’ll have under the hood will propel him to victory.

2. REGAN SMITH, Furniture Row Racing — As a rookie, Smith crossed the finish line first here last year but was ruled to have illegally passed Tony Stewart below the yellow line and was credited with finishing 18th, the last car on the lead lap.

Furniture Row Racing generally fields very competitive restrictor-plate rides, and young Mr. Smith will have a king-sized chip on his shoulder from last year that he’d like to knock off this weekend.

3. BRAD KESELOWSKI, Phoenix Racing — Absolutely the only thing more stunning and shocking than Keselowski winning his first Cup race and the first for car owner James Finch back in April would be a Keselowski sweep of both Talladega races.

Think it couldn’t happen? Think again. Keselowski has been red-hot lately in the Nationwide Series, has a ton of confidence now and will be driving what essentially is another Hendrick car.

4. MARCOS AMBROSE, JTG-Daugherty Racing — The amiable Aussie was fourth here in the spring, and Toyota’s restrictor-plate program certainly is plenty stout enough for him to have another good run this time out. Quietly, he has put together a very solid season.

5. AJ ALLMENDINGER, Richard Petty Motorsports — Hey, the ‘Dinger was third in the Daytona 500 and has shown he has the talent to get it done. He’s due for another good showing and this could be the weekend.

Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief for SPEEDtv.com, the former Executive Editor of NASCAR Scene and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. He is the author of Cheating: The Bad Things Good NASCAR Nextel Cup Racers Do In Pursuit of SPEED, and has appeared on television and radio shows to discuss NASCAR racing. Jensen is the past President of the National Motorsports Press Association. Jensen is the 1997 National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year and has won numerous national and state awards for news reporting, columns and feature writing. The Answer Man is back at SPEEDtv.com. Tom Jensen answers your questions during every race week and looks forward to hearing from you - please e-mail it to

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