Jimmie Johnson has finished 15th or better in 31 straight Chase races and currently has the largest points lead at this stage of the Chase in history. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
On the first day of each weekend in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, all 12 Chase drivers are obligated to spend 20 minutes meeting with the media to discuss the upcoming race and whatever questions we reporters can dream up.
While many folks assume it’s a foregone conclusion that Jimmie Johnson will win his fourth consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship, during media availability Friday at Martinsville, the Chase drivers kept bringing up two points: 1. Martinsville and Talladega are both “wild cards,” unpredictable tracks where anything can happen. 2. It’s all about the math.
On both points, I concur, at least somewhat.
Three years ago, Jeff Burton came into Martinsville with a 45-point lead, but blew an engine and finished 42nd. He left the track in fifth place, 48 points out of first and never to be heard from again that season, at least not in terms of a serious title run.
Absolutely nothing says the same thing couldn’t happen to points leader Johnson on Sunday. He could break a motor, get a flat tire, become collateral damage in a crash of backmarkers or get hit on pit road. Anything can happen.
Johnson has finished 15th or better in 31 straight Chase races, so depending on how you look at it, either it’s extremely unlikely he’ll falter on Sunday, or bad racing luck finally will catch up with him and he’ll have the bad day he’s eluded for more than three years. You can argue both sides of that coin.
As for Talladega, suffice to say literally half the Chase field was caught up in a big one with less than 15 laps to go last fall. For that matter, in the spring ‘Dega race, the current top three in points — Hendrick Motorsports teammates Johnson, Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon — all crashed and finished 30th or worse. So it’s wide open, too.
Now for the thornier issue, the math.
As you all know, right now Johnson leads Martin by 90 points, Gordon by 135 and Tony Stewart by 155. No one has had a bigger lead than Johnson at this point in the five prior Chases.
In the Chase alone, here’s how the points break down:
• In the first five Chase races, Johnson has earned 893 points, an average of 179 for each race.
• Martin has earned 793 points, an average of 159.
• Gordon has earned 778 points, an average of 156.
• Stewart has earned 738 points, an average of 148.
Let’s say Martin earns another 793 points over the final five Chase races. That would give him a total of 6,626 points. To equal that total, Johnson would have to earn 703 points in the last five races to go with the 5,923 he already has.
To do that, all Johnson has to do is average a ninth-place finish and lead one lap in each of the remaining five races. And given that his worst finish in the first five races was ninth, that’s a pretty safe bet.
