Traditional “pack” drafting might return to the Daytona International Speedway at the start of the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
In about two weeks, Sprint Cup engines will be fired in anger for the first time this season as practice begins for the Feb. 18 Budweiser Shootout at Daytona International Speedway.
Although the Shootout has considerable status of its own, perhaps more so than in recent years it will be an extended and important test session for the Feb. 26 Daytona 500. Teams will be dealing with a string of new challenges – including fuel-injection engines and a still-evolving NASCAR rules package – over the Daytona fortnight.
The uncertainty surrounding the race can be traced to NASCAR’s attempts to blunt the power of tandem drafting, the two-by-two style of racing that has dominated Daytona and Talladega in recent events. After thousands of preseason laps, the general thinking in shops around the Sprint Cup universe is that traditional “pack” drafting will return to the 500 but that the double-up draft ultimately will decide the event’s winner.
Using that foundation, it’s possible to devise a list of some ifs, ands and buts that might be prevalent when 43 teams begin the Great American Race.
IF pack drafting indeed becomes a big factor again AND his car is as strong as it has been in recent restrictor-plate races, underline Jeff Gordon, the winner of the 500 in 1997, 1999 and 2005, as a 500 favorite.
BUT Gordon has not won a points race at Daytona since that 2005 score.
IF late-race tandem drafting becomes the trump card AND Dale Earnhardt Jr. is near the front, look for Tony Stewart, a favorite Junior drafting partner, to be nearby.
BUT Stewart’s chances of being in the front of a winning two-car draft must be questioned. He’s still looking for his first Daytona 500 victory.
IF Carl Edwards is in the top five in the final two laps AND he has a worthy drafting partner, look for Roush Fenway Racing’s lead driver to be more aggressive in his pursuit of the win than he was last year, when he followed winner Trevor Bayne across the finish line.
BUT Edwards, who raced Stewart lap by lap for last year’s championship in a losing cause, faces the same Daytona mountain as last year’s series champion. He is zero-for-forever in the 500.
IF Phoenix Racing’s restrictor-plate cars are as strong as they normally are, AND new team driver Kurt Busch can adjust quickly to a new situation, he easily could be a victory threat in the 500, despite the team’s relative lack of resources.
BUT Busch fits into the Stewart-Edwards column in the 500 – no victories.
IF the 500 weekend is looking for another upset winner like Bayne last year AND if Danica Patrick swims through what is certain to be a parade of publicity to keep her helmet on straight, she could be a factor at the finish.
BUT a woman has never won a NASCAR major-series race.
IF that happens AND it’s a tight finish, there will be no BUTTS left sitting in the seats.
Mike Hembree is NASCAR Editor for SPEED.com and has been covering motorsports for 30 years. He is a six-time winner of the National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year Award.
