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Sprint Cup
CUP: Chasing The Odds
Barring an unexpected twist, the drivers currently in Sprint Cup points positions one through 12 will make up the Chase field...
Jimmie Johnson is typically stellar in the Chase. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
The Chase for the Sprint Cup is three weeks away, and the folks at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, who’ll be hosting the opener, are getting things all gussied up for the start of the 10-week run to NASCAR glory.
Of course, there are two races – at Atlanta Sept. 5 and at Richmond Sept. 11 – to run before the Chase begins, but the setup is a little unusual this year in that, barring some sort of calamity, the dozen drivers who will march into the 10-week “playoffs” with a shot at the championship are known.
Entering next week’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, 13th-place Jamie McMurray is 100 points behind 12th-place Clint Bowyer, and 14th-place Mark Martin is 101 behind Bowyer. Bowyer would have to stumble badly or be involved in a couple of early wrecks at Atlanta and/or Richmond to open the Chase door for McMurray or Martin.
Assuming the status quo holds, the Chase field will contain Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle and Bowyer.
That gives Richard Childress Racing and Roush Fenway Racing three drivers each, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing two each and Penske Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing one each in the hunt for NASCAR’s biggest prize.
It’s a very representative field, one containing five former champions (Gordon, Stewart, Kenseth, Johnson and Kurt Busch), a veteran who should have won a title by now (Harvick) and two upstarts (Kyle Busch, Hamlin) who could make statement runs in this Chase.
Is there a favorite? Let’s take a look at some possible odds:
Jimmie Johnson (2-1): It’s tough to pick anybody else as the top dog. After all, Johnson has won the past four titles. Until somebody else does it, he has to be the No. 1 pick.
Kyle Busch (3-1): He’s the wild card and the wild child. If his cars hold up under him and he can avoid bumper-bashing contact with those who might choose to feud with him, he can easily challenge for a first championship.
Kevin Harvick (4-1): Harvick’s season has been so consistently fine that you could fall asleep watching it. He has three wins, has finished every race and has 16 top-10s, two more than any other driver.
Denny Hamlin (4-1): It’s been an unusual year for Hamlin, who had in-season knee surgery but then seemed to perform BETTER. He seemed on the verge of taking over the series in the spring but has cooled recently.
Tony Stewart (5-1): Stewart has two championships and knows how to play the game in the Chase. The fact that he doesn’t have any wins this season is troubling, and he seems to be having more fun dueling with the media than competing on the track, but don’t count him out when the big money is calling.
Kurt Busch (5-1): Busch has matured immensely since signing on with Penske Racing and has the smarts, equipment and mechanical support to challenge for a second title.
Jeff Gordon (6-1): Gordon’s long winless string has been stretched to very un-Gordon-like proportions. He’s second in points, however, the result of 10 top-fives.
Carl Edwards (7-1): Ford’s persistent difficulties reaching victory lane this year are worrisome, but Roush Fenway Racing has rebounded well in recent weeks. Edwards has the competitive fire that is likely to eventually produce a championship.
Jeff Burton (10-1): The RCR veteran has had a quality career and seldom makes wrong moves, but he’s had trouble closing the deal in the last 50 laps.
Greg Biffle (10-1): Often overlooked, the Biff owns Ford’s only win this season. A good closer, he has 14 top-10s, second only to Harvick in that category.
Matt Kenseth (12-1): Kenseth won the last non-Chase championship and is among those drivers who aren’t particularly fond of the format. He has no wins this season but always seems to be racing around the top 10 at the end of the day.
Clint Bowyer (15-1): Bowyer has bounced on the edge of Chase eligibility in recent weeks and hasn’t visited victory lane.
Mike Hembree is NASCAR Editor for SPEED.com and has been covering motorsports for 28 years. He has written several books on NASCAR, including "NASCAR: The Definitive History of America's Sport" and "Then Tony Said To Junior: The Best NASCAR Stories Ever Told". He is a six-time winner of the National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year Award.
Of course, there are two races – at Atlanta Sept. 5 and at Richmond Sept. 11 – to run before the Chase begins, but the setup is a little unusual this year in that, barring some sort of calamity, the dozen drivers who will march into the 10-week “playoffs” with a shot at the championship are known.
Entering next week’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, 13th-place Jamie McMurray is 100 points behind 12th-place Clint Bowyer, and 14th-place Mark Martin is 101 behind Bowyer. Bowyer would have to stumble badly or be involved in a couple of early wrecks at Atlanta and/or Richmond to open the Chase door for McMurray or Martin.
Assuming the status quo holds, the Chase field will contain Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle and Bowyer.
That gives Richard Childress Racing and Roush Fenway Racing three drivers each, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing two each and Penske Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing one each in the hunt for NASCAR’s biggest prize.
It’s a very representative field, one containing five former champions (Gordon, Stewart, Kenseth, Johnson and Kurt Busch), a veteran who should have won a title by now (Harvick) and two upstarts (Kyle Busch, Hamlin) who could make statement runs in this Chase.
Is there a favorite? Let’s take a look at some possible odds:
Jimmie Johnson (2-1): It’s tough to pick anybody else as the top dog. After all, Johnson has won the past four titles. Until somebody else does it, he has to be the No. 1 pick.
Kyle Busch (3-1): He’s the wild card and the wild child. If his cars hold up under him and he can avoid bumper-bashing contact with those who might choose to feud with him, he can easily challenge for a first championship.
Kevin Harvick (4-1): Harvick’s season has been so consistently fine that you could fall asleep watching it. He has three wins, has finished every race and has 16 top-10s, two more than any other driver.
Denny Hamlin (4-1): It’s been an unusual year for Hamlin, who had in-season knee surgery but then seemed to perform BETTER. He seemed on the verge of taking over the series in the spring but has cooled recently.
Tony Stewart (5-1): Stewart has two championships and knows how to play the game in the Chase. The fact that he doesn’t have any wins this season is troubling, and he seems to be having more fun dueling with the media than competing on the track, but don’t count him out when the big money is calling.
Kurt Busch (5-1): Busch has matured immensely since signing on with Penske Racing and has the smarts, equipment and mechanical support to challenge for a second title.
Jeff Gordon (6-1): Gordon’s long winless string has been stretched to very un-Gordon-like proportions. He’s second in points, however, the result of 10 top-fives.
Carl Edwards (7-1): Ford’s persistent difficulties reaching victory lane this year are worrisome, but Roush Fenway Racing has rebounded well in recent weeks. Edwards has the competitive fire that is likely to eventually produce a championship.
Jeff Burton (10-1): The RCR veteran has had a quality career and seldom makes wrong moves, but he’s had trouble closing the deal in the last 50 laps.
Greg Biffle (10-1): Often overlooked, the Biff owns Ford’s only win this season. A good closer, he has 14 top-10s, second only to Harvick in that category.
Matt Kenseth (12-1): Kenseth won the last non-Chase championship and is among those drivers who aren’t particularly fond of the format. He has no wins this season but always seems to be racing around the top 10 at the end of the day.
Clint Bowyer (15-1): Bowyer has bounced on the edge of Chase eligibility in recent weeks and hasn’t visited victory lane.
Mike Hembree is NASCAR Editor for SPEED.com and has been covering motorsports for 28 years. He has written several books on NASCAR, including "NASCAR: The Definitive History of America's Sport" and "Then Tony Said To Junior: The Best NASCAR Stories Ever Told". He is a six-time winner of the National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year Award.
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