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CUP: Chase Spots Still Up For Grabs
Written by: Tom Jensen   
07/30/2009
 
Barring a catastrophic collapse Jimmie Johnson (Left) and Tony Stewart (right) are locks to make the Chase. (Photo: LAT Photographic) ยป More Photos
As the cutoff to set the field for the Chase for the Sprint Cup nears, the pressure is ratcheting up on drivers and teams to crack the top 12.

Sunday’s Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500 at Pocono Raceway will be the 21st of 26 races in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup regular season, with the Chase participants locked in after race No. 26 at Richmond International Raceway in September.

Here’s how the top 12 breaks down heading into Pocono:

1. SURE THINGS — Barring a catastrophic collapse, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch are all locks to make the Chase. Busch, the fourth-place driver in points, has a 247-point lead over 13th-place David Reutimann. For him to fall out of the Chase would probably require three to four DNFs over the next six races, and the odds of that happening are virtually nil.

And given that Stewart, Johnson and Gordon have even bigger cushions, the top four are in great shape to contend for the championship.

Busch said that he wants to concentrate on race victories over the final weeks of the regular season to try and amass bonus points for the Chase.

“What we’re hoping to do is have a big enough points buffer built on 13th after Watkins Glen (on Aug. 8) that we can really go after the wins – and the important bonus points for the Chase – in those four races,” said Busch, driver of the No. 2 Penske Championship Racing Dodge Charger. “It would be a great position to be in, using fuel mileage and pit strategy – whatever it takes — in going after wins and bonus points.”

2. SOLID — Carl Edwards (195 points ahead of 13th place), Denny Hamlin (+157) and Ryan Newman (+145) are by no means locks for the Chase, but they are each in excellent position. Realistically, all they have to do over the final six races of NASCAR’s regular season is average finishes of 15th or better and they’ll probably be fine.

Newman said he knows it’s show time.

“I guess I kind of look at it as having two races that we are attacking right now, each weekend, as we get closer to the Chase,” said Newman, who is enjoying an excellent first season with Stewart-Haas Racing. “Our No. 1 goal is to win the race we are at that weekend. Our No. 2 goal is to put ourselves in the position to be in the top-12 so we can be in the Chase for the Championship. Hopefully, one of these will take care of the other, meaning that a win or even a good finish will bolster us in points and help us to solidify our position in the Chase for the Championship. In the end, our ultimate goal is to win the championship and you can only do that by being in the top-12 at the end of the first 26 races. So, that being said, we just have to stay focused on that and put ourselves in a position to capitalize on those last 10.”

3. UP FOR GRABS — Here’s where it gets interesting. Eighth-place Kasey Kahne is just 121 points ahead of 13th-place Reutimann. Behind Kahne are Mark Martin (+110), Juan Pablo Montoya
(+100), Greg Biffle (+84) and Matt Kenseth (+68). None of these five drivers can afford any mistakes or DNFs over the next six races, but one or more probably will slip up.

“We're still growing,” said Martin, who leads the Sprint Cup Series with four victories and finished second in last week’s Brickyard 400. “I feel more momentum now than I did in the first five races. I feel like we've really got some forward momentum in understanding what we need to do to get these cars from a top-10 team to a contender. It seems like we've been real successful at that over the past few weeks.”

4. KNOCKING ON THE DOOR — David Reutimann (13th place, -68 points from 12th) and Kyle Busch (-82) are outside the top 12 right now, but they still have plenty of time to make it back in. Both have won races this year, both have fast cars, but both have been erratic. Brian Vickers (-120) remains a decided long shot, though he still could make it if he gets hot.

Busch, who has had a hugely disappointing season despite three victories, said it’s time for change.

“For me, we need to try something different,” he said. “ … The bad races aren’t just bad, they’re horrible. Whether that’s my fault or not, you need a common denominator. There’s no common denominator as to why a bad day goes bad and gets worse. If it was me who kept my head in the game and stayed focused, which I feel like I’ve done, but maybe I give up a little bit and don’t tell my team exactly what we need on fixing the car.”

5. STICK A FORK IN ‘EM — Richard Childress Racing teammates Clint Bowyer (-151) and Jeff Burton (-228) both made the Chase in 2007 and ’08, with Burton also making it in ’06. But barring an incredible hot streak by Bowyer or a miracle by Burton, they will not make it this year. If either one of them finishes outside the top five at Pocono, you can consider them out of the Chase for 2009.




Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief for SPEEDtv.com, the former Executive Editor of NASCAR Scene and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. He is the author of ?Cheating: The Bad Things Good NASCAR Nextel Cup Racers Do In Pursuit of SPEED,? and has appeared on television and radio shows to discuss NASCAR racing. Jensen is the past President of the National Motorsports Press Association. Jensen is the 1997 National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year and has won numerous national and state awards for news reporting, columns and feature writing. The Answer Man is back at SPEEDtv.com. Tom Jensen answers your questions during every race week and looks forward to hearing from you - please e-mail it to

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