NASCAR Sprint-Cup Series
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CUP: Edwards – A Faint Hope
Carl Edwards has one last shot – and a tiny one – at making the Chase…
Mike Hembree  |  Posted September 08, 2012   Richmond, VA
Carl Edwards, driver of the No. 99 Kellogg's Ford, stands near his car on the grid during qualifying for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. (Photo: Getty Images)
The numbers look like very difficult and very ugly algebra for Carl Edwards.

Although he hasn’t won a race this season (indeed, he hasn’t won since March of last year), Edwards limps into Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 still holding a chance – albeit a very slim one – of qualifying for the Chase for the Sprint Cup and seeking the title he barely lost last year.

Here’s how the figures stack up for Edwards (or maybe that should be against him): He must win the race, and Kyle Busch must finish 24th or worse and Jeff Gordon must finish 12th or worse. If Tony Stewart drops out of the top 10 Saturday night and falls into wild-card territory, that would eliminate Edwards.

Clearly, the door to the Chase for Edwards is all but closed. Unless a couple of miracles arrive, he’ll be watching this year’s championship run from the pack of “regulars,” even as his Roush Fenway Racing teammates Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth roar into the Chase.

He looked to have a good start on the Richmond weekend Friday as he led the day’s second practice session, but he later qualified 16th for Saturday night’s race.

“I just messed up both sides (of the track) a little bit,” Edwards said. “I think we have a really good race car. … I think we will be just fine.

“I am excited about this race. The car was really fast in the last practice. In race trim, we were the fastest car in the last practice, so that is good.”

Edwards led 206 laps in the April race at Richmond but was nailed by a late-race penalty on a restart and finished 10th. That sort of outing has defined his season.

Still, he holds hope for a final shot.

“I'm hoping for an insane race," Edwards said. "I want things to just be off the chart. I want rain delays and oil on the track. I want things to happen.

“I need people running out of fuel and crazy cautions and four-wide down in turn one. That's what I need, and I'll take whatever I can get."

Edwards has three top fives and eight top 10s at RIR.

Mike Hembree is NASCAR Editor for SPEED.com and has been covering motorsports for 30 years. He is a six-time winner of the National Motorsports Press Association Writer of the Year Award.
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